TY - JOUR AU - Dessie, Zelalem Getahun PY - 2014 TI - MULTI-STATE MODELS OF HIV/AIDS BY HOMOGENEOUS SEMI-MARKOV PROCESS JF - Current Research in Biostatistics VL - 4 IS - 2 DO - 10.3844/amjbsp.2014.21.28 UR - https://thescipub.com/abstract/amjbsp.2014.21.28 AB - Multi-state stochastic models are useful tools for studying complex dynamics such as chronic diseases. The purpose of this study is to determine factors associated with the progression between different stages of the disease and to model the progression of HIV/AIDS disease of an individual patient under ART follow-up using semi-Markov processes. A sample of 1456 patients has been taken from a hospital record at Amhara Referral Hospitals, Amhara Region, Ethiopia, who have been under ART follow up from June 2006 to August 2013. The states of disease progression adopted in the multi-state model were defined based on of the following CD4 cell counts: ≥500(SI); 200 to 499(SII);