Periodicity of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in a Mathematical Model that Incorporates Complacency
Flugentius Baryarama, Livingstone S. Luboobi and Joseph Y.T. Mugisha
DOI : 10.3844/ajidsp.2005.55.60
American Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume 1, Issue 1
An HIV/AIDS model incorporating complacency for the adult population is formulated. Complacency is assumed a function of the number of AIDS cases in a community with an inverse relation. A method to find the equilibrium state of the model is given by proving a stated theorem. An example to illustrate the application of the theorem is also given. Model analysis and simulations show that complacency resulting from dependence of HIV transmission on the number of AIDS cases in a community leads to damped periodic oscillations in the number of infective with oscillations more marked at lower rates of progression to AIDS. The implications of these results to public health with respect to monitoring the HIV/AIDS epidemic and widespread use of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs is discussed.
© 2005 Flugentius Baryarama, Livingstone S. Luboobi and Joseph Y.T. Mugisha. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.