Research Article Open Access

Modeling and Forecasting of International Tourism Demand in ASEAN Countries

Asrin Karimi1, Pouya Faroughi2 and Khalid Abdul Rahim1
  • 1 Faculty of Economics and Management, University Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
  • 2 Department of Statistics, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran

Abstract

This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate have negative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship with international tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is a long-run relationship between variables.

American Journal of Applied Sciences
Volume 12 No. 7, 2015, 479-486

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486

Submitted On: 17 June 2015 Published On: 8 August 2015

How to Cite: Karimi, A., Faroughi, P. & Rahim, K. A. (2015). Modeling and Forecasting of International Tourism Demand in ASEAN Countries. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 12(7), 479-486. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486

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Keywords

  • Tourism Demand
  • Economic Growth
  • Macroeconomic Indicators
  • Panel Poisson Regression
  • Modeling