Research Article Open Access

Utilization of Holt's Forecasting Model for Zakat Collection in Indonesia

Akbarizan1, Muhammad Marizal2, M. Soleh2, Hertina1, Mohammad Abdi. A.1, Rado Yendra2 and Ahmad Fudholi3
  • 1 Department of Law and Syari’ah, Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim (UIN Suska), 28293, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia
  • 2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim (UIN Suska), 28293, Pekanbaru, Riau, Indonesia
  • 3 Solar Energy Research Institute, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

Abstract

The practice of zakat is gaining popularity in Indonesia. This development is attributed to the strong role of the government in consistently developing zakat infrastructure and the increased awareness of people to practice zakat. Despite this success, a mechanism for predicting future zakat collection has not yet been developed. This study applies Holt's exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast zakat in Indonesia using zakat collection from 2009 to 2014. Results show that Holt's exponential smoothing is best fits the zakat time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting zakat. Holt's exponential smoothing is comparable to the ARIMA model given its small deviations in mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the software used to implement Holt's exponential smoothing is similar to that used in ARIMA models. These similarities show that these models can accurately forecast future trends to prepare proper strategies and plan the future of the organization. These models can also be used to develop a plan for managing charity based on the number of recorded mustahiq.

American Journal of Applied Sciences
Volume 13 No. 12, 2016, 1342-1346

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2016.1342.1346

Submitted On: 11 August 2016 Published On: 22 December 2016

How to Cite: Akbarizan, ., Marizal, M., Soleh, M., Hertina, ., A., M. A., Yendra, R. & Fudholi, A. (2016). Utilization of Holt's Forecasting Model for Zakat Collection in Indonesia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 13(12), 1342-1346. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2016.1342.1346

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Keywords

  • Holt's Exponential Smoothing
  • Forecasting
  • Zakat
  • Trend