Review Article Open Access

Artificial Intelligence Techniques and External Factors used in Crime Forecasting in Violence and Property: A Review

Rebaz Mala Nabi1, Soran Ab. M. Saeed1 and Habibollah Haron2
  • 1 Sulaimani Polytechnic University, Iraq
  • 2 Qaiwan International University, Iraq

Abstract

Crime forecasting is beneficial in providing useful information to authorities in planning effective crime prevention measures. The two types of analysis used in crime forecasting are univariate and multivariate. Comparatively, multivariate analysis provides better forecasting accuracy because of its ability to discover crime patterns not previously seen. Crime is strongly influenced by several external factors, including economic, social and demographic. Hence, an analysis is needed to identify and select relevant factors that influence crime and can later be used to improve forecasting accuracy. Neighborhood Component Analysis (NCA) is a reliable form of analysis for identifying significant relationships between factors and crime data. Several model types have been introduced in crime forecasting, including statistical and artificial intelligence models. Recently, the artificial intelligence model has come into favour because of its ability to handle nonlinearity patterns in crime data well. Within the artificial intelligence model, Gradient Tree Boosting (GTB) shows good performance as it produces a robust and reliable forecast result. GTB uses least square function as a loss function for error fitting during training. Findings show that, in addition to using least square function, implementing other standard mathematical functions that fit to the crime data increases forecasting accuracy. In other cases, both NCA and GTB are sensitive to parameters input. Dragonfly Algorithm (DA) is a promising, nature inspired metaheuristic algorithm that is capable of solving such problems.

Journal of Computer Science
Volume 16 No. 2, 2020, 167-182

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3844/jcssp.2020.167.182

Submitted On: 22 November 2019 Published On: 19 February 2020

How to Cite: Nabi, R. M., Saeed, S. A. M. & Haron, H. (2020). Artificial Intelligence Techniques and External Factors used in Crime Forecasting in Violence and Property: A Review. Journal of Computer Science, 16(2), 167-182. https://doi.org/10.3844/jcssp.2020.167.182

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Keywords

  • Crime Forecasting
  • Crime
  • GTB
  • DA
  • NCA
  • External Factors